Update July 20, 2018

 

The trade highlighted by the Inch Platform is long for the short term with a stop at 2,782.65 and the first target at 2,851.18 and for the medium term with a stop at 2,731.33 and the first target at 2,938.06.

 

Inch Platform – S&P 500 Index updated for July 20, 2018 – daily closing 2,801.83

 

First warning, as shown by the chart above the index, measured in comparative terms against all the world’s stock indices (332) is weaker and shows a top-level daily trend stage. The operating risk is at 9 therefore the risk factor is very high.

 

Inch Platform – Elliott Wave Forecast – S&P 500 Index updated for July 20, 2018 – daily closing 2,801.83

 

Second warning, the chart shows the preferred count that shows the end of the bullish trend with a wedge wave ⑤ in progress.  Now, the scenario is complete although maybe we should wait. And all this because we have not yet found any bearish impulse suitable for confirm it even by analyzing the lower hourly time frame based on the principle of the fractionalization of financial objects

Having said that, it is right to point out that the index is priced beyond the 2,790.00/2,770.00 area, which represents its watershed zone between bullish and bearish short-term perspectives. Therefore, until there are no prices lower than 2,770.00, will be greater the probability of continuing with a bullish extension achievable with measurements higher than 2,816.76 (last relative top).

In that case, the subsequent bullish targets will be achieved between 2,837.00 and 2,851.00, corresponding to bearish gap area opened at the beginning of the year between 29 and 30 January trading days. Over 2,851.00, further targets can be realized at 2874.00 and close to the psychological level of 3,000.00.

 

Inch Platform – Elliott Wave Forecast – S&P 500 Index updated for July 20, 2018 – hourly chart closing 2,801.83

 

Only with a bearish impulse also on the hourly time frame will be possible to start constructing bearish scenarios that will be deepened and not underestimated due to the potential wedge of exhaustion in progress, since such patterns usually push the prices quickly towards the base of the wedge, that is, about at 2,600.00.

 

Inch Platform – Pattern Prediction – S&P 500 Index updated for July 20, 2018.

 

The twenty-trading days predictions show different perspectives and therefore do not give clear signals. The expected range from the daily closing of 20 July to the next month ranges from a potential loss of 4.26% to a potential gain of 5.26%.

 

Inch Platform – DAX Index updated for July 20, 2018 – daily closing 12,561.42

InchCapital Platform – Dax index – MT ranking Weaker – Updated for July 20th, 2018 – Data Source Datalink

 

The trade highlighted by the Inch platform is short for the short term with a stop at 12,780.00 and the first target at 12,195.00 and neutral or the medium term.

First warning, as shown by the chart above the index, measured in comparative terms against all the world’s stock indices (332) is weaker and shows a top-level daily trend stage. The operating risk is at 9 therefore the risk factor is very high.

 

Inch Platform – Elliott Wave Forecast – DAX Index updated for July 20, 2018 – daily closing 12,561.42

 

Second warning. The week ended in weakness, with a complete trend from the point of view of the alternative count highlighted in the chart and therefore wave (D). The recovery has stopped in contact with the 200 days simple moving average after having retraced 61.8% of the previous bearish phase, recordable at this point as wave (C) of wave ④.

 

Inch Platform – Elliott Wave Forecast – DAX Index updated for July 20, 2018 – hourly chart closing 12,561.42.

 

The alternative count has become the main count, so it is possible that the DAX index highlights a last short-term bearish swing to show wave (E) of wave ④. If this occurs, it will be possible to record bullish perspectives, which will be classified as wave ⑤.

Wave (E) has two targets of price and time, namely 11,970.00 -11,900.00 zone, reachable in the period July 24 – July 26 and 11,770.00-11,650.00 zone reachable by the last week of next month of August.

According to these two scenarios, therefore, the bearish break down of the entire support zone 11.700-11.600 will not be realized. We consider this zone as the watershed area between bullish and bearish prospective for medium and long-term.

As long as this support will stand, substantial problems will not emerge and the index will highlight the latest bullish trend forecast in the scenario analyzed in this article.

The fact remains that from the trade point of view and for the reasons expressed above, the current trade is short and will remain so until it is exceeded 12,780.00, corresponding to the top of the wave (D) with a minimum target of 11,970.00.

 

Inch Platform – Pattern Prediction – DAX Index updated for July 20, 2018.

 

The twenty-trading days predictions show different perspectives and therefore do not give clear signals. The expected range from the daily closing of 20 July to the next month ranges from a potential loss of 6.21% to a potential gain of 7.58%.

 

Stock Barometer – Updated for July 20, 2018

 

 

The stock map updated on Friday 20 July highlights investors’ greater interest in Sweden, Austria, New Zealand, Brazil, Kuwait and Tunisia. The latter country continues to be among the strongest equity indices for many months. Conversely, India, China, Hong Kong and South Korea continue to show weakness.

 

 

The performance of the comparative forces between global equities versus government bonds, commodities and gold still highlights investors’ strategic and structural interest in equities while commodities and gold are clearly in decline.

 

Update July 4, 2018

 

The update of the count (Elliott Wave Forecast) on the DAX index confirms the scenario proposed on 11 June, which proposed a prospective downturn based on a first bearish impulse already highlighted read more The Inch Magazine

 

Dax Index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Daily chart updated for July 3th, 2018.

 

As shown in the chart above, we close wave 3 of (3) or C. The bearish dynamic is therefore incomplete, and this for the main scenario that is impulsive and for the alternative labels, that are of corrective nature.

The difference is not insignificant since in the first case we have started an important corrective phase destined to last about 18/24 months while in the second case, at the end of this corrective phase the underlying bullish trend will reappear with the another possible top forecasted for the summer of the next year.

In other words, as long as I continue to mark the falling market with numbers, one cannot expect comforting bullish expectations. If instead the letters will prevail, there will still be the possibility of being able to count on a recovery in prices also interesting.

Let’s just stick to the facts, unlike what was found in the previous downturn that characterized the first part of the current year, this one that is progressively affirming has already supported two bearish signals. I am referring to death cross and the bearish reversal pattern of the double top completed with the breakdown of 12,547.61 level (end of first bearish impulse).

 

Dax Index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Weekly chart updated for July 3th, 2018.

 

Even if the medium / long-term trend is still bullish, it is right to point out that a potential major bearish reversal pattern of the head and shoulders type is emerging. This configuration will be completed only with the possible breaking down of the neck-line of the 11,868 / 11,726 zone.

Conclusions

First of all, in order to have the recovery of the long-term bullish trend, the end of the current downtrend must be recorded. After that, you will have to analyze the first bullish swing to catalog it as impulsive. Failing that, the decline will continue to break down the medium / long term support ot the 11,868 / 11,726 zone.

So, by adopting in chronological order

• we are currently bearish until we record the closing of the current bearish swing;
• we are on wave 4 of major wave (3) or C and therefore we are looking for at least another bearish pulse to be classified as wave 5 of major wave (3) or C
• the daily price observations are not able to exceed the 14-day volatility levels which for today, 4 July 2018, forecast daily top in the 12,540 / 12,550 area and daily bottom the 12.160 / 12.150 zone

 

Dax Index – Daily bar chart – Update July 3, 2018

 

The Inch Platform position is short with stop level at 12,493

 

Dax Index – Quantitative approach – Pattern Prediction for the next 20 trading days – Update June 29, 2018

 

Quantitative forecasts are aligned with the ongoing development short-term scenario.

 

Dax Index – Hourly candlestick chart – Updated for July 4th, 2018 hr. 15.34

 

The hourly chart does not currently show any bullish impulse but only corrective dynamics.

Update June 11, 2018

 

As usual, we update the scenarios for the S & P 500 and DAX 30 indices in order to verify if the proposed strategies have been effective or not.

With regard to the performance of the S & P 500 index, it is noted that the bullish trend is still ongoing. This is powered by the Info Tech sector and above all by the indirect effect of medium and small capitalization stocks that have recorded new all-time high read more InchCapital Platform – Customers Report – S&P 500 June 8th, 2018.

 

InchPlatform – S&P 500 – daily closing 2,779.03 – Update June 8, 2018 

 

Elliott Wave Forecast scheduled this outlook for some time, as you have read in the articles published in “The Inch Magazine” (read more above). The scenario for the S&P 500 index expected to achieve a last all-time high, ideally in the zone of 3,050.00-3,080.00 before the real corrective phase comes, destined to last from eighteen to twenty-four months.

The formation of new tops by medium and small capitalization stocks is the usual sign of the beginning of the end of a cycle, but all this is a hypothesis and what matters is to stick to the facts. These are the two Elliott Wave Forecasts for the S&P 500

 

Typical Scenario – S&P 500 index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Updated for June 8th, 2018

 

To close the bullish outlook we must record the end of this ongoing upward phase (3), a subsequent correction (4) and a last bullish swing (5).

 

Wedge Scenario – S&P 500 index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Updated for June 8th, 2018

 

 

It is the most dangerous because the corrective phase could start, as early as next week. The graph above shows an incomplete sequence, because wave (C) is still in progress, wave (D) is still to be recorded as corrective phase and wave (E) is still to be detected upward.

It is more dangerous because this final wedge may already have been completed, by this small structure. The main reference point is at 2,677.00. If the latter will be broken down, the dynamics of the descent should be examined promptly.

Between the two scenarios, we prefer the first, which provides for a typical rise. This is not because we like it subjectively more, but because the twenty-day pattern prediction of the quantitative analysis give it greater probability of realization and the Trend Stage daily and weekly are still bullish.

 

S&P 500 index – Pattern Prediction – Updated for June 8th, 2018.

 

InchPlatform – S&P 500 – Trend Stage daily and weekly – Update June 8, 2018

DAX 30

The DAX 30 index is objectively weaker than the S&P 500 index and not only because it has already highlighted a possible downward impulse.

 

InchPlatform – DAX 30 – daily closing 12,766.65 – Update June 8, 2018.

 

The index shows a daily bearish cyclical Trend Stage and a weak relative strength versus the MSCI ACWI IMI NET TR index read more InchCapital Platform – Customers Report – Dax 30 – June 8th, 2018.

 

InchPlatform – DAX 30 – Trend Stage daily and weekly – Update June 8, 2018

 

In addition, the predictions proposed by the pattern prediction at twenty trading days are more bearish than bullish.

DAX 30 index – Pattern Prediction – Updated for June 8th, 2018.

 

The maximum prospective downturn of 6.97% compared to the closing of Friday, June 8, 12,766.65 and therefore with a target achievable within the next calendar month of 11,876.81 which is opposed to a maximum increase of 3.78% always compared to the closing of Friday 8 June and therefore with the objective always to the next twenty trading days at 13,249.22.

 

DAX 30 index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Updated for June 8th, 2018

 

Moving on to the first point the daily chart shows a first closed bearish impulse, which can be classified as a possible wave (1) or A; possible because to have the certainty the impulse should be fractalized on lower time frames. We did not do it because in the Inch Platform we analyze only daily and weekly time series.

That said, even wave (2) or B could be completed and that is why we are in a very important trading/investing point regarding the high reward/risk ratio. In fact, it is possible to develop in the next few days wave (3) or C bearish that as known it has propulsive characteristics and therefore of directional strength.

Below 12,547.61 will significantly increase the probability of the bearish scenario. This, for the current month has targets to 12,365.07 / 12,284.00 – 12,156.59 / 12,133.57 – 11,714.24 / 11,500. Conversely, above 12,925.24 will involve reworking the scenario.

Conclusions

There is a greater weakness of the DAX 30 index compared to the S&P 500 index. The pulse of the DAX 30 will tend to be supported with an index below 12,547.61.

 

Update for May 11, 2018

 

As usual, we update the trends and especially the perspectives of the equity markets using the tools offered by the Inch platform (https://datascollector.inchcapital.com/index.php). In an instant we can analyze, by means of visual communication, the situation of liquidity flows relating to 71 Stock Exchanges.

As can be seen from the chart below, the stock chart updated on Friday 11 May 2018 shows the marked improvement of all the main stock markets compared to the last analysis of 27 April u.s. The prevalence of green color is more intense in two of the most important equity markets: Germany and the United States.

 

Equity map – May 11th, 2018

 

This circumstance reflects, as usual, the position of the DSS trend momentum (https://inchcapital.com/it/servizi-per-investitori-professionali/) of all the stocks traded in each country, taking into account a sample of 75,180 stocks.

The more the color is close to green and the longer are the LONG positions of the DSS trend momentum. On the other hand, the color is closer to red and the Short positions of the trend / momentum DSS are higher. To better explain the concept, look at the pie chart of the Stockholm Stock Exchange.

This comparative analysis is integrated with the three spread charts between Equity vs. Bond, Commodities and Gold markets.

 

MSCI ACWI IMI NET TR versu JPM GBI – DJ UBS Commodities – Gold – May 11th, 2018

 

Compared to last analysis place on April 27th, emphasis that Equity comes first. It has progressively increased its relative strength respected to the bond and gold while it has recently passed the DJ UBS Commodity Index.

To complete the analysis of the ARC method (https://inchcapital.com/it/bokers-e-media/) it is better to investigate the aspect of the absolute evaluation that by convention concerns the S&P 500 and Dax stock indices.

 

S&P 500 Index – daily closing 2727.72 – May 11th, 2018

 

The S & P 500 has completed the triangular pattern and is now free to resume the bullish trend to record a new top ideally in the 3.050 / 3.080 area. We then complete this item concerning the last bearish swing as wave E of wave ④ and begin to classify the bullish swing expressed in the last week as a current impulsive structure namely wave ⑤. The latter is incomplete and therefore we can not yet exclude bearish alternative counts.

Among these, alternative and secondary, has long been proposed a complex correction of which the latter is only an intermediate part waiting to classify a last bearish structure to complete the whole model near the area 2.480 / 2.450.

The Inch platform (https://datascollector.inchcapital.com/index.php) highlights a short-term and medium / long-term bullish scenario. For the short term, the position has gone long from neutral with the daily closing of Wednesday 9 May and currently has a first target at 2.800 with a stop loss at 2.671, with a position of the trend stage that still leaves to further recoveries.

 

 

 

For the medium / long term, the position has gone long from neutral with the last weekly closing of Friday 11 May, proposing a first target to 2873 with a stop at 2532 that can be adjusted starting from the next trading days.

 

 

The pattern prediction for the next twenty days propose a comforting bullish framework that supports the main count and that is wave closure ④, waiting to catalog new tops. The forecasts are all bullish with an extremely limited drawdown of 0.85% compared to the closing on Friday 11 May. Read More: S&P 500 Customers Report.

 

S&P 500 – Pattern Prediction for the next 20 trading days – May 11th, 2018.

 

Regarding the Dax Index, As regards Dax Index, the development plan proceeds in line with what was proposed with the wave closure ④ and the various expected bullish steps. In this case the count based on Elliott’s waves validly opposed the ordinary technical analysis that proposed bearish scenarios meant to last the months.

 

Dax Index – daily closing 13001.24 – May 11th, 2018.

 

To be honest, the reference moving averages are still disposed in a bearish sense and are therefore already prepared to support bearish reversal patterns, which are not yet present at the moment. Therefore we continue to have a bullish opinion, following the proposed main count that is currently not yet complete, since there is no wave (4) and a last bullish impulse (5).

The Inch platform (https://datascollector.inchcapital.com/index.php) adjusted to the short-term count with the daily closing on April 30th and highlights a first bullish target at 12.758 with a stop loss at 13.302, with space still to rise given the position of the trend stage daily.

 

 

For the medium / long term, the Inch Platform is bullish since the weekly closing of April 13 with a stop at 12.461 and the first bullish target at 13.776.

 

 

The quantitative forecasts for the next twenty trading days highlights an increase of 8.64%, compared to the daily closing of Friday, April 27th and a maximum decline of 4.64%, with a discordant trend for the next two weeks.. Read more: InchCapital Platform – DAX 30 Customers Report

 

 

Conclusions:

There are no substantial changes compared to previous forecasts. We always expect the formation of a new last top for the current year for both the S&P 500 and the DAX indices.

The Dax has shown a stronger bullish strength than the S & P500 but it could be surpassed by the S&P 500 index leading the recovery in equity markets.

 

Update for April 27th, 2018

 

As usual, we update the trends and especially the perspectives of the equity markets using the tools offered by the Inch platform (https://datascollector.inchcapital.com/index.php). In an instant we can analyze, by means of visual communication, the situation of liquidity flows relating to 71 Stock Exchanges.

As can be seen from the chart below, the Equity map updated on Friday, April 27, 2018 shows a prevalence of the red color. This circumstance reflects the position of the DSS trend momentum (https://inchcapital.com/professional-investors-services/) for all securities traded in each country.

 

Equity map – April 27th, 2018

 

The more the color approaches the red, the greater the Short position of the DSS trend momentum. On the other hand, the color is closer to the green and the greater the Long position of the DSS trend / momentum. To better explain the concept, look at the pie chart of the London Stock Exchange.

This comparative analysis is integrated with the three relationships between the stock and bond market, commodities and gold. Compared to the last analysis carried out on April 6th, it should be noted that the stock market has recovered strength against bonds and gold, while it remains in second place compared to the commodities.

 

MSCI ACWI IMI NET TR versu JPM GBI – DJ UBS Commodities – Gold – April 26th, 2018

 

To complete the analysis of the ARC method (https://inchcapital.com/online-brokers-editors/) we lack only to deepen the aspect of the absolute evaluation that by convention concerns the S & P500 and Dax stock indices.

 

S & P 500 Index – daily closing 2669.91 – April 27th, 2018

 

The S & P 500 index highlighted corrective and non-impulsive swings.This circumstance leads us to classify wave D and wave E of a corrective phase still in progress similar to a triangular pattern whose wave E will close the entire correction. Or, alternatively, as a complex corrective phase still underway destined to extend over time.

The Inch platform confirms a neutral trading approach for both the short and medium term InchCapital Platform – S & P 500 Index

 

S & P 500 Index Pattern Prediction for the next 20 trading days – April 27th, 2018.

 

The quantitative forecasts for the next twenty trading days highlights an increase of 8.64%, compared to the daily closing of Friday, April 27th and a maximum decline of 4.64%, with a discordant trend for the next two weeks.

 

Dax Index – daily closing 12580.87 – April 27th, 2018.

 

As regards the DAX index, we have classified the end of wave (1) or A bullish. Therefore, we are waiting to record the end of wave (2) or B bearish and then detect wave (3) or  bullish. Therefore, at the moment, the project proceeds in line with the proposed development plan.

The Inch platform, on the other hand, highlights a neutral trading approach for both the short and medium term InchCapital Platform – Dax Index

 

DAX Index Pattern Prediction for the next 20 trading days – April 27th, 2018.

 

Quantitative forecasts for twenty trading days suggest a maximum increase of 6.73%, compared to the closing on Friday April 27th , 2018  and a maximum decline of 4.43%, with a homogeneous perspective of seeing a substantially bullish trend for the next two weeks.

Conclusions:

There are no substantial changes to the published development plans, which await the end of the corrective phase and then record the recovery of the medium / long uptrend trend still underway. The Dax index shows a stronger bullish strength than the S&P 500 index.

 

Update for April 9th, 2018

 

S&P 500 – Daily close April 6th, 2018: 2604.47

 

One month later our last update, we highlight, for the first time, the possibility that the correction was completed according to a model 5 – 3 – 5 (zig-zag) finished at the beginning of the current month. Consequently, we are obliged to trade any kind of bullish configuration that should be formed in the next sessions.

In the specific case, the eventual breakout of the first static resistances present in area 2672/2674 will provide us the first buy signal, which we will follow hoping to achieve the next top of 3050.00/3080.00 area, planed for the next month of May.

Alternatively, there will be a complex correction of which the latter is finished it is only the first part of a more complex structure. In this case, the correction will harness the market for months before recording the upturn of the bullish trend.

 

 

The first quarter of the current year ended with a configuration of indecision, interpretable as the first real sign of uncertainty of the bullish forces, recorded after the brilliant performance that began 2016.

Right now, there are no signs of inversion, although it is right to point out how the last bullish cycle has been going on nine years without highlighting primary corrections that last 18 to 30 months.

 

DAX – Daily close April 6th, 2018: 12241.27

 

With reference to our latest update, it is noted that the expected upside bullish reversal pattern was in fact achieved in the last week, when a final count was then completed with a double bottom closed with a bullish breakout, the first bullish gap, recorded after months of correction.

The performance of the DAX30, compared with that of the S & P500 index, shows a greater weakness. As in fact witnessed by the death cross of the classic reference averages at 55 and 200 days, as well as the formation of a first important area of static resistance.  These signals are not yet highlighted by the performance of the S & P500 index.

We are therefore at an important point in the market where a complete count (end of the corrective phase) is contrasted by contradictory bearish signals to a potential upward development (recovery of the uptrend). So let us go and search in the Inch platform tools (Inchcapital Platform) other useful contributions to endorse the bullish scenario.

 

 

The cyclical positions of both the short and medium / long-term phases are favorable for recording the end of a corrective phase and the beginning of a new bullish phase: this is therefore a first signal to support the bullish count that is proposed.

 

Dax30 predictive analysis April 6th, 2018

 

In addition, the quantitative analysis shows possible bullish developments that can be achieved by the index in the next twenty trading days. The most negative projection, proposes a potential maximum loss of 2.8% compared to the closing of Friday, April 6, 2018.

So we are going to check what will happen in the next three weeks with an overall technical and quantitative analytical approach with bullish expectations that contrasts with an ordinary technical framework still precarious for the DAX30 index, still characterized by weakness both in absolute terms and compared to the S & P500 index.

Between the two solutions, for the above considerations, we prefer the first one. We will see then if this way of counting the waves, subordinated to a series of checks of various kinds will work or not.

 

Update for March 9th, 2018

 

March 9, 2018 – S&P 500 daily close: 2786.57

 

“This approach will however be complemented by other analyzes of a different nature that we think can give their valuable contribution from a perspective point of view”.

In this comment taken from the report a month ago, I summarized everything I think about Elliott’s wave theory and that is not to be interpreted as a dogma but as a non-infallible tool that is effective when used with other methods: useful but not absolute .

Any financial object, unless it is analyzed on minimal time scans, until it is reduced to frequencies, must be evaluated using the ARC method, that is, from the absolute, relative and comparative points of view.

The analysis must be contextualized based on the observation that the object has an independent component and an employee: the latter is always present directly or indirectly.

After a month, we note that the expected upward and classifiable phase as wave (2) or B is likely to end within the next week. From the next relative maximum that will be recorded, we expect a downturn that has yet two target areas, namely: a) 2595/2575 (minimal objective); b) 2470/2450 (harmonious objective). The development project will have to be re-elaborated only with surveys exceeding 2872.87 (overlap) last maximum of 26/01/2018.

 

March 9, 2018 – DAX daily close: 12,346.68

 

As for the DAX, we find ourselves in a different situation than the S & P500 from the point of view of the predictions that can be achieved based on Elliott’s wave theory.

In this case, we have entered a detection zone where the correction that has been going on for about four months could be completed. The last minimum of 11830.98 quota realized on 5/3/2018 will have to be considered as main point of reference for the formation of a bullish inversion configuration. During the current week, we expect the closing of the last very short / short-term uptrend phase, which aims to end wave 4 of the last previous downward impulse. Then we will evaluate where and how we can form the inversion configuration that we are looking for based on the next downward phase expected for the next sessions.

For the next few weeks, therefore, two opposing directional trends are possible for the two S & P500 and DAX indices. The first is expected to progressively fall while the second to a possible accumulation ideal for preparing the new uptrend phase.

It is a context that is difficult to believe, both from the point of view of correlations and from that of essential technical analysis. Yet achievable provided that there are no surveys above 2872.87 for the S & P500 index.

 

The beginning.

 

February 9, 2018 – Dow Jones Industrial daily close:  24.191

 

The chart shows the historical evolution of the best-known stock index in the world: the Dow Jones Industrial index (https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones). In the specific case, the index is shown with annual candlestick and on a semi logarithmic scale from 1885 to today and is analyzed according to Elliott’s wave theory.

This is one of the many methods used in technical analysis to study the dynamics of a financial object. One of the few that offers the possibility to plan a predictive framework and therefore on the perspective of the object examined.

 

Dow Jones Industrials: why financial objects?

 

I write, I speak and analyze FINANCIAL OBJECTS because they are from the point of view of physics in a broad sense objects that move in multi-dimensional environments that exceed the four classic dimensions of height, width, depth and time.

These objects are not tangible, have no mass but produce effects, highlight propulsive and inertial dynamics and still dynamics of fluids, frequencies, orbital / cyclical and are characterized by self-similarity homothety.

In other words, they are fractal objects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal) that are directly born from the operational effects of mass psychology. Therefore, unlike the other phenomena of physics that do not depend on this link with the human being, they cannot exist if there is no human interest, attention not to the human being, but to his interest.

They also reflect aspects, as mentioned, related to mass psychology but also to anthropology. It seems to me enough to fall in love with matter as it happened to me years ago: it is truly a fascinating world without limits to research.

 

Dow Jones Industrials Index and Elliott Wave Theory.

 

The index is a fact both in its findings and in its visual expression. In this case, precisely because it is its historical version, it is shown in annual Japanese candlesticks from 1885 to the present day on a semilogarithmic scale, to give it an understandable visual sense.

L’indice è un dato di fatto sia nelle sue rilevazioni, che nella sua espressione visiva. In questo caso, proprio perché storica, è raffigurato in candele giapponesi annuali dal 1885 ad oggi su scala semilogaritmica, per darne un senso visivo comprensibile.

Elliott’s Wave Theory, on the other hand, is a method that must be passed statistically. It has to pass a non-parametric specific test on the expected projections of impulsive or corrective nature on at least 500 (five hundred) out of sample.

In other words, since nobody took the trouble to collect this test on different markets and time scales, we cannot currently give Elliott’s Wave Theory the statistical value that we would ideally want all of us Elliottians.

One of the main characteristics of this theory is represented by the interpretation of the financial object as a graphic projection of all the human interests connected to it. For this reason, the object tends over time to re-propose the same dynamics, impulsive and corrective. Just like all human beings are sadly and / or fortunately bound to concepts such as repetition emotional, repetition compulsion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repetition_compulsion) but also defensive removal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_mechanisms)

As aforementioned, then we will refer to Elliott’s Theory of Waves from a historical and customary point of view, on the basis of the fact that it has been consolidated since 1934 and continues to be used by technical analysts: some reason in the facts and in its validity will still exist.

However, this approach will be complemented by other analyzes of a different nature that we think can give their valid contribution from the forecast point of view.

We nevertheless launch an appeal to all enthusiasts Elliottians to realize over time this company collecting out of sample test to confirm statistically the validity of the theory.

 

The dynamics of the Dow Jones index according to Elliott’s Wave Theory.

 

Since the US stock exchange came into being, this in fact registered a first correction in the 1929/1934 years. An incomplete secular uptrend is therefore still ongoing. This means that we expect a correction (wave 4) and a last bullish phase (wave 5) to close the central impulse (3), shown in the chart. Of the dynamics under way, this we have recently recorded since 2009 is certainly one of the most favorable phases to the bullish forces ever!

The main point of this trend is that, before continuing in the historical bullish phase, the Dow Jones index will record a correction, that is wave (4), which will bring it back to an area between 14.198 (12/2007) and 6469 ( 12/2009) in a cycle of at least two years.

This means that the index risks a significant decline to be realized ideally starting from the second half of the current year after closing wave 5 of (3). Before recording this correction destined to last for years, however, there is the possibility of cataloging, as mentioned, one more top: ideally for the April / May period have this year (2018).

We will see if this will be possible by analyzing the movement in search of counts useful to plan a scenario that can be used for the next few months.

In this sense, for the principle of waves fractalization, (Fractals) we go to the daily scan moving on the S&P500 index that represents, compared to the Dow Jones index, a more significant operating point for the financial community.

 

The dynamics of the S & P 500 index according to Elliott Wave Theory.

 

February 9th, 2018 – S&P500 daily close: 2619.55

 

As shown in the graph by the relative maximum of 2872.87 recorded on Friday 26/01/2018 a clear downward impulse developed on Friday 9/2/2018 with the minimum realized at 2532.69 on the 200-day moving average.

In two weeks, the index returned to the same levels as on 4/10/2017: it lost what it had gained in three months and three weeks.

From this last minimum, we will develop a rebound, which we will classify as wave (2) or B to be interpreted as a reaction to be exploited operationally in several ways.

Traders and investors in general will be able to: a) open up short or very short positions, especially on the strongest stocks, i.e. those that have lost less than the index, such as the components of the Information Technology sector; b) adjust the stop profit to protect long positions or take advantage of the rebound to reduce them.

According to the theory, to this bullish phase will follow at least another bearish impulse that now it is not possible to know how it will unfold. It will be possible to record a wave 3 (corrective extension or inversion of the upward trend still in progress) or a wave C (correction in progress with potential complex evolutions).

All this if only one survey is not recorded above 2872.87 last maximum recorded on 26/1/2018 (overlap). If this threshold should be exceeded, any bearish model will not be validated and the scenarios achievable will have to be reworked: you cannot make excuses with irregular B or wedge we are not in those cases the last bearish impulse of the S & P500 index is hooked to the last impulse bullish.

The model can be positively integrated with the quantitative approach of predictive analysis taken from the Inch platform (InchCapital Platform).

The graph below shows that the projections calculated for the next twenty operating sessions on the basis of the dynamics recorded up to 9/2/2018, highlight two bullish expressions at a solar month up to a maximum of 3.88% compared to the last closing of Friday (2619.55). Therefore gives us a potential recovery calculated on daily closures up to 2721.18: area where wave four stands out in the chart in one to two average reference averages (55-day-simple) and short period (26-day exponential).

We will see at the end of the current week what kind of dynamics will unfold and what levels of recovery will be achieved.

 

February 9th, 2018 – S&P500 daily close: 2619.55 – predictive analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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