Dax Index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Update July 4, 2018

The update of the count (Elliott Wave Forecast) on the DAX index confirms the scenario proposed on 11 June, which proposed a prospective downturn based on a first bearish impulse already highlighted read more The Inch Magazine

 

Dax Index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Daily chart updated for July 3th, 2018.

 

As shown in the chart above, we close wave 3 of (3) or C. The bearish dynamic is therefore incomplete, and this for the main scenario that is impulsive and for the alternative labels, that are of corrective nature.

The difference is not insignificant since in the first case we have started an important corrective phase destined to last about 18/24 months while in the second case, at the end of this corrective phase the underlying bullish trend will reappear with the another possible top forecasted for the summer of the next year.

In other words, as long as I continue to mark the falling market with numbers, one cannot expect comforting bullish expectations. If instead the letters will prevail, there will still be the possibility of being able to count on a recovery in prices also interesting.

Let’s just stick to the facts, unlike what was found in the previous downturn that characterized the first part of the current year, this one that is progressively affirming has already supported two bearish signals. I am referring to death cross and the bearish reversal pattern of the double top completed with the breakdown of 12,547.61 level (end of first bearish impulse).

 

Dax Index – Elliott Wave Forecast – Weekly chart updated for July 3th, 2018.

 

Even if the medium / long-term trend is still bullish, it is right to point out that a potential major bearish reversal pattern of the head and shoulders type is emerging. This configuration will be completed only with the possible breaking down of the neck-line of the 11,868 / 11,726 zone.

Conclusions

First of all, in order to have the recovery of the long-term bullish trend, the end of the current downtrend must be recorded. After that, you will have to analyze the first bullish swing to catalog it as impulsive. Failing that, the decline will continue to break down the medium / long term support ot the 11,868 / 11,726 zone.

So, by adopting in chronological order

• we are currently bearish until we record the closing of the current bearish swing;
• we are on wave 4 of major wave (3) or C and therefore we are looking for at least another bearish pulse to be classified as wave 5 of major wave (3) or C
• the daily price observations are not able to exceed the 14-day volatility levels which for today, 4 July 2018, forecast daily top in the 12,540 / 12,550 area and daily bottom the 12.160 / 12.150 zone

 

Dax Index – Daily bar chart – Update July 3, 2018

 

The Inch Platform position is short with stop level at 12,493

 

Dax Index – Quantitative approach – Pattern Prediction for the next 20 trading days – Update June 29, 2018

 

Quantitative forecasts are aligned with the ongoing development short-term scenario.

 

Dax Index – Hourly candlestick chart – Updated for July 4th, 2018 hr. 15.34

 

The hourly chart does not currently show any bullish impulse but only corrective dynamics.